chrisbg — Tōfuku-ji Temple

Japan’s autumn is running late this year. Here’s what the actual forecast says, and how to plan around it. The Japan Meteorological Agency’s three-month outlook came out on 25 August. The line that matters: seasonal progression will be slow, and foliage colouring may be delayed. Why it’s late: El Niño is running and is expected to hold through winter, so warm air keeps sitting over Japan. September is still forecast to hit 35°C. October stays above average, with days over 30. November runs warmer than normal from western through northern Japan. Maples need cold nights to turn. A warm September and October pushes the whole thing back. One thing I’ll be straight about: the official koyo forecast isn’t out yet. It lands in September and gets revised through October. Anyone handing you exact 2026 peak dates today is guessing. So here’s how I’d plan it. Kyoto’s peak has landed between 18 November and 5 December for most of the last decade, usually centred on the 20th to the 30th. With a delay signalled, weight the late half. My advice is 25 November to 5 December. Low-elevation spots turn last, so Tofuku-ji, Eikan-do and Arashiyama are your safest late bets. The hill temples in northern Kyoto go earlier. If you’re there before the 25th, head north first. Avoid 21 to 23 November. That’s the Labour Thanksgiving long weekend. Hotels are at their tightest, trains sell out weeks ahead, and in a delayed year it probably lands before peak. Maximum crowds, half the colour. Book early either way. Late November rooms in Kyoto go 6 to 8 weeks out. One more thing worth knowing: November is forecast to bring more rain on the Pacific side. Build a wet day into your plan instead of losing one. I’ll pull the official forecast when it publishes in September and update this. Follow along if you want that.